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Strategic Plans and Complex Systems

12 May, 2017 by James Lawther Leave a Comment

Organisations are systems

System 

/ˈsɪstəm/ A set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an interconnecting network; a complex whole

There are (at the risk of gross oversimplification) three types of system:

  • Simple
  • Complicated
  • Complex

Simple systems

These are easy to understand and predict.  Boiling an electric kettle is a simple system, there isn’t too much to go wrong.  You put water in, switch it on and when it is hot, it switches itself off.  Simple systems don’t need too much attention.

Complicated systems

My mobile phone is a complicated system.  Far more complicated than a kettle.  It is an intricate combination of interconnecting parts.  Whilst it is complicated, my phone is also static.  It works the same way day after day, time after time.  For all its intricacy I can depend on it.

Complex systems

The weather is a complex system.  It is a combination of only a few parts: heat, water, air and land.  But it is dynamic; there are interactions, feedback loops, spirals, checks and balances.  I can’t depend on the weather.

What type of system is your organisation?

There are a complicated parts: information technology, polices and procedures, equipment and algorithms.  Whilst these parts may be mind-blowingly intricate they are static and predictable.

There are also complex elements: people, customers, suppliers, employees.  All with different desires and egos and emotions.  People who behave differently from day-to-day, driving a myriad of different outcomes.

Our ability to forecast how our organisations will behave is like our ability to forecast the weather.  Tomorrow will be very much the same as today, but will it rain on your summer holiday?

Systems and plans

If we can’t predict how our organisations will behave, why do we spend so much time writing and developing strategic plans?

Instead of all that effort on planning and risk mitigation, nudge your organisation a little and see how it responds.  Test and learn, watch how things unfold.  Go on, dive in.

The aim isn’t to eliminate risk, it is to increase the chances of success ~ Roger L. Martin

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Filed Under: Blog, Wild Cards Tagged With: command and control, complexity, strategy, systems thinking

About the Author

James Lawther
James Lawther

James Lawther is a middle-aged, middle manager.

To reach this highly elevated position he has worked in numerous industries, from supermarket retailing to tax collecting.  He has had several operational roles, including running the night shift in a frozen pea packing factory and carrying out operational research for a credit card company.

As you can see from his C.V. he has either a wealth of experience or is incapable of holding down a job.  If the latter is true this post isn’t worth a minute of your attention.

Unfortunately, the only way to find out is to read it and decide for yourself.

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