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Estimates and Anchors

23 January, 2014 by James Lawther 13 Comments

Nottingham Riviera

Sometimes you will be asked a question and you won’t know the answer… How many customers will call? How many products will you sell? How much will the project cost? Sometimes you have to start with an estimate. How do we estimate? Let me explain with a question: how many people live in my home […]

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis, Tools & Techniques Tagged With: anchoring, assumptions, decisions, estimation

Do You Really Need Big Data?

19 January, 2014 by James Lawther 5 Comments

You think you need big data You need to understanding all those interactions and connections You need databases and decisioning tools and analysts and consultants You need to know what all those patterns are telling you You need the competitive advantage After all, knowledge is power, it is obvious, isn’t it? Maybe you could start […]

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis, Tools & Techniques Tagged With: big data, data is not information, Dilbert, information technology

Counting Mushy Peas

10 January, 2014 by James Lawther 5 Comments

Mushy Peas

Operational definition In the movie East is East there is a great line Crude… But great… And what d’you think I do in there morning till night? Counting mushy fuckin’ peas? Can you think of anything more futile than counting mushy peas? In his book The Tiger That Isn’t (which is also great) Andrew Dilnot picks up on […]

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis, Tools & Techniques Tagged With: measurement, operational definition

Are You Above Average?

5 January, 2014 by James Lawther 12 Comments

We love averages They let us know how we are doing, we run our businesses on averages, we judge ourselves against averages, average headlines even sell newspapers: £2m: average pay award for JP Morgan’s top staff 2013 Weather Summary: Sunnier than average Average woman will kiss 15 men and be heartbroken twice before … (Which link […]

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis Tagged With: average, key performance indicators, measurement, statistics

World Class Rhetoric

1 December, 2013 by James Lawther 6 Comments

rhetoric

The other day I was sent a report.   It went a little like this… (The names have been changed to protect the guilty)   World Class Performance It has been implied that our performance could be improved.  All available data suggests that this cannot be the case Market Context We have the highest satisfaction […]

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis Tagged With: assumptions, beliefs, credibility, fessing up, group think, ignorance, integrity, rhetoric, self belief, statistics, W. Edwards Deming

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