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Can You See The Future?

1 March, 2015 by James Lawther 5 Comments

How useful is your data?

Data comes in all shapes and sizes, you could classify it in a hundred and one different ways: categorical, ordinal, Boolean, composite …

Here a couple of the less technically challenging – read eye-rollingly dull – categories:

Opinion or Observation

Opinions are what people think, so opinions are important.

  • Some argue that “perception is reality” and opinions drive our behaviour. Consequently opinions are the only type of data that matters.

Observations however, are hard to dispute, they are measurable and quantifiable.

  • Others argue that observations are the only measurements that matter.  The difference between observation and opinion is simply ignorance.

Input or Output

Output data shows the result, it is unequivocal.  If you really want to know what happened measure the output, it will tell you the result.

  • Unfortunately what is done is done and the output cannot be changed.  There is no point crying over spilt milk.

Inputs are what caused the result, they show how it came about, but  input data isn’t perfect, it only indicates what might happen and it isn’t totally reliable.

  • The beauty of inputs is that you can change them; you can do something about what might happen.

Which is most useful?

Inputs and outputs observations and opinions, they all have their place but if you want to understand, predict and maybe change the future is there a clear winner?

Inputs and Outputs

Observations change before opinions do.  You might well be delivering the tastiest pizzas or giving the best service…. but it will take a while before your customers cotton on to the fact and let their opinions change.  Opinions are slow to develop

Likewise inputs change before outputs do. (I won’t go on to explain that one, even I am not that condescending — well not often)

Speed of understanding

If you want to know what will happen next then input-observations will beat output-opinions hands down every time.

Something that is worth thinking about next time you run a customer survey and are unhappy with the result.

The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed ~ William Gibson

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Lead Measures

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Image by Bob May

Filed Under: Blog, Operations Analysis Tagged With: data is not information, inputs and outputs, key performance indicators, lead and lag measures, measurement

About the Author

James Lawther
James Lawther

James Lawther is a middle-aged, middle manager.

To reach this highly elevated position he has worked in numerous industries, from supermarket retailing to tax collecting.  He has had several operational roles, including running the night shift in a frozen pea packing factory and carrying out operational research for a credit card company.

As you can see from his C.V. he has either a wealth of experience or is incapable of holding down a job.  If the latter is true this post isn’t worth a minute of your attention.

Unfortunately, the only way to find out is to read it and decide for yourself.

www.squawkpoint.com/

Comments

  1. Adrian Swinscoe says

    9 March, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    James,
    Very interesting post.

    Funny how many new initiatives/pilots are driven by new observations but fall foul to the fact that opinions are slower to develop.

    Adrian

    Reply
    • James Lawther says

      28 March, 2015 at 12:57 pm

      Isn’t it just? And how strongly we hold our opinions in the face of overwhelming observations to the alternative.

      Reply
  2. maz iqbal says

    28 March, 2015 at 4:41 pm

    Hello James,
    I totally get that one who is rational it is evident to you that observations are hard to dispute. Not being rational as you, I beg to differ. It occurs to me we only see (observe) that which we are open to observing. And there has to be huge amount of pain before we will observe what there is to observe. Lets, look at an example.

    Can anyone seriously say that the kind of divide that Descartes created between human beings and animals exist? If we wish to observe it is there for us to see: the intelligence, caring, family orientation of elephants; the intelligence and suffering of orcas; the intelligence and feeling of our closest chimpanzees, bonobos… Yet, we continue to hunt, imprison, experiment, kill, maim, torture.

    All the best
    maz

    Reply
    • James Lawther says

      29 March, 2015 at 1:43 pm

      Maz, thanks for your comment, maybe the trick is to at least try to observe, no doubt we will colour those observations with our own experience but it would be a start.

      Mind you as Matthew Henry is supposed to have said There are none so blind as those who will not see.

      Reply

Trackbacks

  1. Evidence Based Management | OBS Network says:
    5 September, 2015 at 5:32 pm

    […] Can You See The Future? […]

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